Pengaruh kebijakan moneter terhadap industri produksi di indonesia (2010-2019)

Hasanatul Ahwal, Desi Novera Danur

Abstract


Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui besarnya pengaruh beberapa instrumen ekonomi moneter terhadap tingkat industri produksi di Indonesia  priode 2010-2019. Penelitian ini diuji menggunakan analisis regresi berganda melalui Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Test. Sementara itu, data yang digunakan meliputi data M2 (jumlah uang beredar) , bunga antar bank, nilai tukar, dan indeks produksi industri (IPI) untuk periode 2010-2019. Hasil penelitian kami menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, semua variabel menunjukkan pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap industri produksi di Indonesia. Dalam variabel jumlah uang beredar, hubungan tingkat bunga antar bank yang dihasilkan menunjukkan efek positif sementara nilai tukar menghasilkan dampak positif dan juga negatif, tergantung pada situasi dan kondisi. Sementara itu, dalam hubungan jangka panjang, variabel inflasi tidak memiliki hubungan yang signifikan, sedangkan suku bunga antar bank berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap produksi industri. Sebaliknya, variabel nilai tukar menunjukkan pengaruh positif pada produksi industri.


Keywords


Kebijakan moneter; IPI; ARDL

References


Bank Indonesia BI. Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter. 2020.

BI, B. I. (2018). Tujuan Kebijakan Moneter. Bi.Go.Id. https://www.bi.go.id/id/moneter/tujuan-kebijakan/Contents/Default.aspx

C.W.J. Granger and P. Newbold. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 2, 111–120. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470996249.ch27

Chen, W., Wei, L., & Li, Y. (2018). Fuzzy multicycle manufacturing / remanufacturing production decisions considering inflation and the time value of money. Journal of Cleaner Production, 198, 1494–1502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.07.004

Clift, B. (2010). European Economy. The Oxford Handbook of British Politics, June. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199230952.003.0049

de Mendonça, H. F., & Nascimento, N. C. (2018). Monetary policy efficiency and macroeconomic stability: Do financial openness and economic globalization matter? North American Journal of Economics and Finance, October, 100870. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.10.018

El Alaoui, A. O., Jusoh, H. Bin, Yussof, S. A., & Hanifa, M. H. (2019). Evaluation of monetary policy: Evidence of the role of money from Malaysia. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 74, 119–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2019.04.005

Fiedler, S., Gern, K. J., Jannsen, N., & Wolters, M. (2019). Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy. Economics, 13, 1–34. https://doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2019-35

Fuller, D. A. D. and W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, Vol. 49, N.

Funashima, Y. (2018). Monetary policy, financial uncertainty, and secular stagnation. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, June, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.10.011

Funashima, Y. (2020). Money stock versus monetary base in time–frequency exchange rate determination. Journal of International Money and Finance, 102150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102150

Ghossoub, E., & Reed, R. R. (2010). Liquidity risk, economic development, and the effects of monetary policy. European Economic Review, 54(2), 252–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.06.003

Goulas, A. (2017). The Relationship between Short-Run Interest Rate and its Economic Determinants: Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production Index, Household Consumption and Exchange Rate. An Empirical Research for the Four Most Developed Countries. European Journal of Economic Studies, 6(2). https://doi.org/10.13187/es.2017.6.124

Habibi, A. (2019). Non-linear impact of exchange rate changes on U.S. industrial production. Journal of Economic Structures, 8(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-019-0172-0

Harjunawati, S., & Hendarsih, I. (2018). Hubungan Produk Domestik Bruto Dan Jumlah Uang Beredar Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia 2005-2017. MANAJERIAL-Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu Manajemen, 1(1), 121–130.

He, Y. (2017). A Study on the Relationship between Money Supply and Macroeconomic Variables in China. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 8(6), 99–107. https://doi.org/10.1515/mjss-2017-0046

Ifenowo, B., & Polytechnic, T. F. (2019). THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT The Impact of Bank Credits on the Growth of the Manufacturing Sectors in Nigeria. June. https://doi.org/10.24940/theijbm/2019/v7/i5/BM1904-035

Igbinedion, S., & Ogbeide, F. (2016). Monetary Policy and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization: Further Evidence from Nigeria. South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 14(2), 159–174.

Isaac, O. M., Akyuz, M., & Jiya, N. S. (2019). Effect of Interest Rate on The Growth of Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria Sosyal Araştırmalar ve Davranış Bilimleri Dergisi Journal of Social Research and Behavioral Sciences. December.

Kilinc, M., & Tunc, C. (2019). The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic activity in Turkey. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 51, 505–528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.03.006

Matlasedi, T. N. (2017). The influence of the real effective exchange rate and relative prices on South Africa’s import demand function: An ARDL approach. Cogent Economics and Finance, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2017.1419778

Murgia, L. M. (2020). The effect of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the Eurozone. Economics Letters, 186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108803

Neilson, J., Dwiartama, A., Fold, N., & Permadi, D. (2020). Resource-based industrial policy in an era of global production networks: Strategic coupling in the Indonesian cocoa sector. World Development, 135, 105045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105045

Nguyen, V., Thuy, T., Trinh, D., & Thuy, T. (2019). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports in Vietnam : A Bounds Testing Approach. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010006

O, A. S., & E, F. O. (2018). Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Industrial Output Growth in Nigeria 2 . Literature Review and Theoretical Framework. 4(September 1986), 145–158.

Omodero, C. O. (2019). Effect of Money Supply on Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and Ghana. International Journal of Social Science Studies, 7(3), 16. https://doi.org/10.11114/ijsss.v7i3.4137

Pasten, E., Schoenle, R., & Weber, M. (2019). The propagation of monetary policy shocks in a heterogeneous production economy. Journal of Monetary Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.10.001

Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, 371–413. https://doi.org/10.1017/ccol521633230

Primus, K. (2018). The effectiveness of monetary policy in small open economies. Journal of Policy Modeling, 40(5), 903–933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.03.001

Reed, R. R., & Ghossoub, E. A. (2012). The effects of monetary policy at different stages of economic development. Economics Letters, 117(1), 138–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.108

Rubio, M., & Yao, F. (2020). Bank capital, financial stability and Basel regulation in a low interest-rate environment. International Review of Economics and Finance, 67(December 2019), 378–392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.02.008

Schabert, A. (2009). Money supply, macroeconomic stability, and the implementation of interest rate targets. Journal of Macroeconomics, 31(2), 333–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2008.08.001

Setiawan, H. (2018). Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Fiskal Dan Moneter Terhadap Kinerja Makroekonomi Di Indonesia Dengan Model Structural Vector Autoregression (Svar). Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan, 3(2). https://doi.org/10.20473/jiet.v3i2.9169

Simanjuntak, P. T. H., Arifin, Z., & Mawardi, M. K. (2017). Rupiah Terhadap Volume Ekspor Rumput Laut Indonesia. Journal of Business Administration, 50(3), 163–171. administrasibisnis.studentjournal.ub.ac.id

Siwi, J. A., Rumate, V. A., Niode, A. O., Pembangunan, J. E., Ekonomi, F., Bisnis, D., & Apriliasiwigmailcom, E. (2019). Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Terhadap Permintaan Kredit Pada Bank Umum Di Indonesia Tahun 2011-2017. Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Terhadap Permintaan Kredit Pada Bank Umum Di Indonesia Tahun 2011-2017, 19(01), 1–9.

Śmiech, S., Papież, M., & Dąbrowski, M. A. (2019). How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries? Research in International Business and Finance, 50(December 2018), 252–266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.05.008

Sugiharti, L., Esquivias, M. A., & Setyorani, B. (2020). The impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia’s top exports to the five main export markets. Heliyon, 6(1), e03141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e03141

Svensson, L. E. O. (2011). Chapter 22 - Inflation Targeting. In Handbook of Monetary Economics (Vol. 3, Issue 11). Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53454-5.00010-4

Usman, O. A. (2014). Impact of Monetary Policy on Industrial Growth in Nigeria. 4(1), 18–31. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v4-i1/507

Utile, B. J., Okwori, A. O., & Ikpambese, M. D. (2018). EFFECT OF INTEREST RATE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA. International Journal of Advanced Academic Research | Social & Management Sciences, 4(1), 66–76. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004

Varlik, S., & Berument, M. H. (2017). Multiple policy interest rates and economic performance in a multiple monetary-policy-tool environment. International Review of Economics and Finance, 52(October), 107–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.10.004

Zakiah, Zakiah; Usman, U. (2019). Hubungan Jumlah Uang Beredar, Inflasi dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Pendapatan Nasional di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Dinamis. Ekonomi Regional Unimal, 2(2), 99–108. https://ojs.unimal.ac.id/index.php/ekonomi_regional/article/view/1698/pdf




DOI: https://doi.org/10.30872/jinv.v17i2.7872

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2021 Hasanatul Ahwal, Desi Novera Danur

Crossref logo 

Editorial Address

INOVASI: Jurnal ekonomi, keuangan dan manajemen
Faculty of Economics and Business, Mulawarman University
Jl. Tanah Grogot No.1 Samarinda Kalimantan Timur 75119
Email: jakt.feb.unmul@gmail.com

StatCounter: INOVASI: Jurnal ekonomi, keuangan dan manajemen